摘要
根据上杭县4个乡镇1992-2006年连续15a间马尾松毛虫发生期观察调查的历史资料进行统计和分析，计算松毛虫发生期各阶段平均期距和估计区间，作为今后同期预测松毛虫发生期的期距值；将松毛虫发生期与历史同期气温建立回归方程，建立了龙岩市松毛虫回归预测数学模型，经检验证明结果准确，为生产提供参考和借鉴。
Based on the historic data statistic and analysis of continuous 15-year occurring period of Pinus massoniana from 1992 to 2006 in 4 towns of Shanghang County, the average periodic distance and interval estimation of each occurring period of P. massoniana were carried out as the periodic distance forecast value in the same period for the future. The occurring period of P. massoniana and the historic temperature in the same period were set up as a regressive equation, i.e. the regressive forecast mathematics model of P. massoniana in Longyan City, which veracity was verified and can provide references for the future production.
出处
《福建林业科技》
北大核心
2008年第1期90-92,170,共4页
Journal of Fujian Forestry Science and Technology
关键词
马尾松毛虫发生期
期距预测法
区间估计
数学建模
回归预测法
最小二乘法
occurring period of Pinus massoniana
periodic distance forecast method
an interval estimation
mathematics modeling
regressive forecast method
mini dual-multiplication
