中国城市直下型地震危险性分析研究

Analysis of Seismic Hazard in the Cities of China

本文根据泊松模型,并采用第四代区划图综合潜源区数据方案,计算了我国(不包含港、澳、台湾地区)大部分城市未来50年发生6级左右和7级以上直下型地震的危险性。并初步探讨如何计算城市和城市群的直下型地震概率。结果表明:我国很多城市都可能发生直下型地震,而且危险性比较高。

Based upon the Poisson model, and synthetic potential source delineation of the 4^th national seismic zoning map, the seismic hazard of about M = 6.0 and M ≥7.0 in the cities of China（except Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan）in the next 50 years is calculated. An approach is also provided that how to reckon earthquake probabilities in cities and metropolitan. As shown by the results, seismic hazard is very high in many cities of China.