对中国科技实力的定量评估(1980-2004)

A Quantitative Assessment on China's Technological Power(1980—2004)

一个国家的国际科技刊物论文数、居民发明专利申请量、个人电脑用户数、互联网用户数、研究与开发支出等战略性科技资源总量占世界总量的比重可以用来衡量其科技总实力。1980年,中国科技资源总量占世界的比重为0.81%,分别相当于美国和日本的1/32和1/20;到2004年,中国科技资源总量占世界的7.09%,为美国和日本的1/3.4和1/2.1。中国科技在1980—2004年期间经历了"跨越式"发展,由世界新科技革命的"落伍者"转变成为"科技大国"。对外开放和科技全球化、市场、政府导向与经济高速增长的拉动是中国科技快速发展的四大驱动力。到2020年,中国有望由"世界科技大国"跻身于"世界科技强国"之列。

The total amount of strategic scientific and technological(S&T)resources in proportion to that of the whole world,including the number of international S&T articles,patent application by domestic residents,number of PC users,number of internet users,and research and development(R&D)expenditure,can be used to measure a country's S&T power.In 1980,the total amount of China's S&T resources just accounted for 0.81% of that of the whole world,which was about 1/32 of that of America,and 1/20 of that of Japan's respectively.And in 2004,the proportion had risen to 7.09%,1/32 of that of America's and 1/20 of that of Japan's respectively.During the period of 1980—2004,China experienced a leapfrogging in S&T development,which changed China's position from a lagger to a player in the new technological revolution.The four driving forces of China's fast S&T development are the opening-up policy,the marketization of the enterprises,the guideline of the government,and the rapid growth of domestic economy.By 2020,China will be hopeful to be transformed into a scientific and power in the world.