人类活动与全球气候变化及其对水资源的影响

Human activity and the global climate change and its impact on water resources

在认识人类活动对近百年气候变化的重要作用中,政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)起了关键性作用。自1990年以来的17年间,IPCC主要通过四次评估报告不断加深对人类活动引起近百年气候变化的认识。这是通过提供三个方面的证据实现的:(1)温室气体自工业化时代以来(1750年以后)的迅速增加,(2)近百年地表和对流层温度以及海洋温度明显增加的观测事实,(3)根据气候模式进行的对过去100年气候变化的模拟。它证明,近百年气候变暖由自然的气候波动和人类活动共同造成,但最近50年大部分气候变化主要由人类活动造成。本文首先阐述人类活动在影响近百年全球气候变化中的重要作用,然后对人类活动影响全球气候变化的若干争议也作了简略介绍和分析。全球气候变化对于全球水资源系统和水资源管理有重大影响,文中从大气温度、降水、海平面上升和蒸散发的变化说明了这个问题。这为采取适应措施提供了科学基础。

In understanding the effect of human activity on the global climate change for recent 100 years, IPCC （Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change） has played a key role. During 17 years from 1990, IPCC has continuously gained insight into better understanding on the global climate change during the recent 100 years mainly caused by human activity, with its four assessment reports, This achievement has been made with provision of three aspects of evidences： （1） rapid increase in greenhouse gases since preindustrial era （after 1750）; （2） temperature rise or warning of surface, tropospospere and oceans; （3） 100-yr climate simulations since 1900 for detection and attribution of the past climate change. These results have shown that recent 100-yr warming is jointly caused by natural climate fluctuation and anthropogenic activity, but most of recent 50-yr climate change is caused by the authropogenic activity. The present paper has first reviewed this issue. Then, the debates and uncenrtainties of global climate change issue have been discussed. The global climate change has had a significant impact on global water resources and management. This issue is further discussed based on changes in temperature, precipitation, sea level rise and evapotranspiration, which may be a necessary scientific basis for adaptation.