气候变化和人类活动对河川径流影响的定量分析

Quantitative assessment for climate change and human activities impact on river runoff

我国许多河流的径流量呈下降的趋势。在这些趋势变化中,如何区分人类活动及气候变化的影响是当前流域水文和气候变化研究的热点和难点。简要介绍了气候变化和人类活动对河川径流影响定量评价中的关键问题,以黄河中游三川河流域为例,基于对天然径流过程的模拟,采用流域水文模拟途径分析评估了气候变化和人类活动对该流域径流量的影响。

Recorded runoffs in many rivers in China have been decreasing. How to identify the quantitative effect of climate change and human activities on runoff is a hot topic, a difficulty problem as well. The key issues in assessment for the both factors impact on runoff were briefly introduced and discussed in the paper. Taking Sanehuan River in the middle Yellow River Basin as a case, the individual effect of climate change and human activities on runoff was analyzed with SIMHYD rainfall runoff model.