教育与经济互动关系的系统动力学分析及其启示

An Analysis of the Systematic Dynamics in the Interaction between Education and Economy and Its Enlightenment

目前对于教育与经济互动关系的研究大多是源于理论讨论和逻辑思辨,仅有少数的实证研究关注二者互动关系和互动作用,缺乏对二者互动发展的实施途径、原理、动力等深层问题的定量研究。系统动力学理论和方法对教育和经济互动关系的计量分析有助于对这一问题研究的深化。运用系统动力学的理论和方法构建的教育和经济互动关系的定量模型及其验证表明,人均GDP决定着人均教育经费,人均教育经费又决定着专任教师的数量,而专任教师的数量决定着6岁以上人口中大专以上人口的比例,6岁以上人口中大专以上人口的比例又反过来决定着人均GDP,这四组关系都是正反馈关系。我国每年以固定的速度提高教育经费占GDP的比例并不是高效率的策略,而在一定年份给予教育比较大的支持力度可能更适合我国教育和经济的发展模式。

An analysis of quantitative samples and experimental results concerning the interaction between education and economy by means of the theory and means of systematic dynamics shows that the average GDP per capita determines educational fund per capita, which in turn determines the number of full-time teachers, which in turn determines the proportion of 6-year-plus population of higher education, which again determines the average GDP per capita. Therefore, it is not a high-efficiency policy for our government to raise the proportion of educational fund to the national GDP. A mode of development more suitable to our education and economy should be to add greatly to governmental investment in education specifically annually.