基于AIDS模型的我国农村居民消费结构的动态分析

A Dynamic Analysis of China's Rural Residents' Consumption Structure Based on AIDS Model

本论文通过建立中国农村居民消费行为的AIDS模型,比较研究了"九五"和"十五"两个时期中国农村居民七大类商品消费的动态特征。结果表明,农村居民在生活消费上的支出仍将持续增加,但消费结构已发生很大变化。食品消费支出突破了温饱水平并继续保持下降趋势;交通和文教消费比例将平稳上升;随着农村医疗制度的不断完善,农民对医疗保健商品的消费也会相应提高。由于我国农村居民消费的地区差异大,所以在进行定量研究时,必须考虑区域差异对估计结果的影响,在制定相关政策时,也不应忽视不同地区农民需求的不同特征。

Based on the AIDS model, the paper compares the dynamic characters of Chinese rural residents＇ consumption of seven major commodities during the Ninth and the Tenth Five-year Plan. The result shows that the rural residents＇ consumption will continue to rise, but the consumption pattern has changed dramatically. Expense on food keeps decreasing after the residents＇ basic need being met while expense on transportation and education will increase steadily. Along with the improvement of the rural medical service system, the consumption of medical and health care commodities will also increase in rural area. Due to the imparity of rural residents＇ consumption between different areas, the impact of such imparity on the estimations made must be considered when carrying out quantitative studies. Their differences of demand should also be stressed in the formulation of policies.