中国资产结构的变化及其对宏观经济政策的影响

Structural Change of Assets in China's Economy and Its Influence upon Macroeconomic Policy

加入WTO后,中国经济外部不平衡导致了中国金融资产结构的不平衡。资产结构的改变使资产价格上下波动,并对宏观经济产生影响,主要体现在:由于金融机构的资金来源与资金运用结构性的不匹配,机构资产的市场价值对利率变化更为敏感;固定资产投资尤其是近两年城镇住房固定资产投资对利率相当敏感;股票市场的财富效应开始显现。针对资产结构的变化,宏观管理政策要作出调整,应采取小幅多频收紧的货币政策和金融管制及创新并举的金融政策,以应对当前和未来一段时间内经济存在的潜在风险。

External imbalance is mainly responsible for the structural change of assets in China＇s economy after China entered the WTO in 2001. These changes make China＇s macro-economy more sensitive to the fluctuating of financial asset prices. Firstly, the mismatch of liabilities and assets make the asset net value of financial institutions more explosive to the changes of interest rates. Secondly, fixed investments are gradually sensitive to the changes of interest rates. Thirdly, wealth effect caused by stock market emerges. All these changes indicate that both the monetary policies and financial regulation or innovation policies are important for coping with the potential risks in China＇s economy.