人民币升值预期与我国的贸易顺差

RMB Appreciation Expectations and China's Trade Surplus

本文对人民币升值预期与贸易差额之间的关系进行了探讨,分析结果认为,本币升值预期会对实际汇率(对贸易差额)的影响产生抑制作用,并刺激出口扩大和进口延迟。这表明消除贸易顺差也需要降低人们对人民币进一步升值的预期;另一方面也说明:国外要求人民币升值的舆论压力可能在实际中会产生逆反的效果,即靠人民币升值不但不能解决中国贸易顺差(其他国家的逆差)的问题,持续施压反而会在短期内扩大顺差。

This paper examines the relationship between RMB appreciation expectations and trade balance. The conclusion is that the expectation of home currency＇s further appreciation will restrain the impact of real exchange rate on trade surplus, and also make export augmented and import deferred. The result would be increase of trade surplus, not decrease caused by exchange rate appreciation. It indicates that shrinking trade surplus needs lowering the expectation of RMB＇s further appreciation. It also indicates that continuing foreign pressure on RMB would not reduce China＇s trade surplus （other economies＇ trade deficits） , but might ironically lead to the opposite.