中国资本账户开放次序的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis on Sequence of China's Capital Account Liberalization

本文运用最小二乘回归及格兰杰因果检验,对我国1978～2005年间的金融发展、资本账户开放、经常账户开放以及制度质量等变量间的关系做了实证分析。结果显示:资本账户开放对金融发展具有显著而稳定的促进作用,但其总体效应受制度质量的制约;经常账户开放与金融发展存在显著负向关系;在资本账户开放与经常账户开放之间,经常账户开放能显著地促进资本账户开放,并且是资本账户开放的格兰杰因,反之则不成立。这一结果表明,加强制度建设,提高制度质量,并且逐步放开资本账户是保证我国资本账户开放平稳进行、金融持续有效发展的现实途径。

This paper uses the time series data from 1978 to 2005 to analyze the correlation between financial development, opening degree of capital account and trade account, and institutional quality in China by employing the OLS and Granger causality test. The results indicate that capital account openness will significantly improve financial development while the total effect is restricted by institutional quality; the coefficient is statistically significantly negative between trade account openness and financial development; and trade account openness will not only significantly enhance openness degree of capital account hut also he the Granger causality of latter. These results reveal that to further enhance institutional construction and improve institution quality, opening capital account gradually is a realistic and effective method to guarantee the stability of the capital account openness and the continuous development in China.