一种新的血吸虫传播指数的构建及其应用

A Re-adapted Malone Schistosome transmission index model and its application

血吸虫传播指数可以通过数学模型直接对血吸虫的流行概况进行总体评估和预报。因此基于血吸虫流行传播机理,提出用极端气温对以往"改良Malone血吸虫传播指数"模型进行改进,参照前人洪青标等的研究成果,构建了"再改良Malone血吸虫传播指数"模型;然后引用世界粮农组织(FAO)与中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所的气象资料,用新模型对中国血吸虫病疫区内血吸虫传播指数的空间差异进行了定量计算和分等划区;用流行区与非流行区传播指数界线900为准,新模型将旧模型的河南省南部、安徽省北部、江苏省北部由原来的传播等级"中"转变成了"低"与"很低";还意外地发现了中国东部血吸虫病流行与并非流行区的界线与中国东部1月份-2℃等温线吻合得非常好。最后讨论了本研究作为一个"气象模型"的计算结果与现实血吸虫病疫情之间还有一些因子需要考虑,并提出了模型本身在计算过程中存在的一些问题和今后改进的方向。

Schistosome transmission index can be directly used to give an overall evaluation and prediction of Schistosomiasis transmission through mathamatical model. Proposal was made to modify the Adapted Malone Schistosome Transmission Index model by extreme temperature based on Schistosomiasis transmission mechanism. A Redapted Malone Schistosome transmission index model was established in light of previous work by Hong Qingbiao. Meteorological data from FAO and Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS were used to calculate the transmission index in Schistosomiasis epidemic region of China by new model, and the result was re-classified into transmission index by category classes. The new model changed the ＂middle＂ class of transmission index into ＂low＂ or ＂very low＂ classes in the regions of south Henan province, north Anhui province and middle Jiangsu province by transmission index of 900. The boundary between epidemic and non-epidemic regions was found by chance to coincide with January -2℃ isotherm in eastern China. The underpinned cause needs to be explored further in the future. Finally the study revealed that, as a meteorological model, the calculation result of the model has some differences from actual epidemiology because more factors of relevance need to be added in the transmission process model. It also discussed a few questions remaining in the model calculation and future improvement directions of the model.