对调整我国炼油能力布局的建议

Recommendations for the restructuring of China's refining capacity

我国炼油能力的布局必须统筹兼顾,全国一盘棋。在石油资源国纷纷发展炼油能力、减少原油出口的大趋势下,我国炼油工业的发展和布局更需从长计议。在运用大型线性规划优化系统对我国现有炼油布局及市场需求进行分析的基础上,提出了炼油布局调整的思路。在原油开采(进口)、运输、加工、销售的整个产业链上,"流向"起着重要作用,炼油企业的原料进厂和产品最终销售到市场的加权平均成本,最低者最具竞争力。预计到2020年我国需要较2006年至少增加2亿吨/年的原油加工量;东北、西北地区原油加工能力大量过剩,为发展下游化工而扩能的总增加能力应控制在1000万吨/年以内;华北地区是消化东北地区过剩成品油的最理想地区,不宜扩能;西南地区在原油资源落实的情况下,到"十二五"末可增加3000万吨/年的炼油能力;中南地区具备增加炼油能力的优势条件,可增加3000万吨/年左右;华东地区是成品油缺口最大的地区,2020年较2006年至少应增加1.3亿吨以上。

The distribution of China's petroleum refining capacity is an issue which demands comprehensive examination, taking all sections of the nation into account. In an era when petroleum-rich nations are developing their own refining capacities and reducing oil exports, a thorough look at the development and distribution of China's oil refining industry is in order. This paper applies a large-scale linear programming optimization system to analyze the China's current market demand and the distribution of its refining capacity, then presents some thoughts on restructuring. 'Flow' plays a critical role throughout the industrial chain, from crude oil exploitation (importation) to transport to processing to sale. The most competitive oil refiners are those with the lowest average weighted cost for bringing raw materials into plants and selling their final products on the market. By 2020, it is projected that China will need to increase crude oil processing by at least 200 million t/a over the quantity for 2006. In the northeast and northwest, where there is a huge surplus of crude oil processing capacity, total capacity expansion to facilitate the development of downstream chemical industry should be kept within 10 million t/a. Northern China would be an ideal candidate to absorb surplus oil products from the northeast, as the area is not suitable for capacity expansion. With crude oil resources available, the southwest may add another 30 million t/a in refining capacity by the end of the Twelfth Five-Year Plan. The middle south is an advantageous position for increasing refining capacity, and may be expected to add about 30 million t/a. The disparity between supply and demand for oil products is most evident in the east; by 2020, this region will need to increase its capacity by at least 130 million t/a over 2006 levels.