城市化进程中城郊土地利用变化及驱动力分析——以宝鸡市马营镇为例

Analysis of the Land-using Change and its Driving Force during Urbanization

利用1990-2006年宝鸡市马营镇土地利用统计数据,在分析土地利用变化特征的基础上探讨其变化的驱动力,并结合GM（1,1）灰色模型预测其未来土地利用变化趋势。结果表明：16年间马营镇土地利用变化以耕地的输出和建设用地的输入为主要特点;面积变化大小为：建设用地〉耕地〉未利用地〉园地;速度变化大小为：建设用地〉园地〉未利用地〉耕地;土地利用程度不断提高;随着城市化进程的加剧,人类活动对区内土地利用变化的整体影响日益强烈,人口增长、经济发展和政策导向是马营镇土地利用变化的主要驱动力;GM（1,1）趋势分析表明,今后一段时间内,在影响因子不变的前提下,耕地、园地和未利用地将持续减少,建设用地仍会增加。

Maying town lies in the outshirts of Baoji city.With the implementation of development strategy of ＂Eastward Enlargement and South Domestication＂,the land-using in Maying town had a remarkable change.Based on the statistical data of land-using in Maying town from 1990 to 2006,the characteristics of land-uesing were analyzed,and its driving forces were also discussed and evaluated.Furthermore,the trend of land-using change in future was also predicted with GM（1,1） model.The results showed：from 1990 to 2006,the output of cultivated land and input of construction land were the major characteristics of land-using change in Maying.The area of land-using change was construction land 〉 cultivated land 〉 unused land 〉 garden plot,and the speed of land-using change was construction land 〉garden plot 〉 unused land 〉 cultivated land.The land-using degree was developing.With the development of urbanization,the impact of human activities on land-using change of Maying town had become more and more fierceness.At the sam e time,the population growth,economic development and governmental macroscopically policy were the main driving factors of land-using change.The results of the GM（1,1）model indicted：the cultivated land,garden plot and unused land would keep decreasing and construction land would keep increasing with invariable development of all driving factors.