中国货币状况指数实证检验

Empirical Research on Chinese Monetary Condition Indices

以1996-2006年季度数据为样本,对中国货币状况指数标准形式与扩展形式分别进行测算。通过将所测算的货币状况指数与样本期季度GDP累计实际增长率,以及CPI走势关系进行对比分析,可以发现:样本期中国货币状况指数,可以运用国际学术界通行的双变量形式,即只考虑市场化利率与汇率的影响,而无须考虑中国以货币供应量作为中介目标的特定背景,纳入广义货币供应量。而在纳入货币供应量之后,货币状况指数对经济增长与CPI走势的解释力均明显下降。

Based on the quarterly data from 1996 to 2006, this study estimated both the standard and expanded forms of the Chinese monetary condition indices. After a eontrastive analysis of the estimated monetary condition indices and the quarterly GDP growth rates in the sample period, as well as the CPI trend, it is found that the Chinese monetary condition indices in the sample period can be estimated by the internationally recognized form of bi-variation, that is, without considering the special context in China where money supply is used as an intermediate target, money supply can be incorporated simply from the perspective of market-directed interest rate and exchange rote. Conversely, after money supply is incorporated into the model, the power of monetary condition indices for the interpretation of economic growth and CPI trend is appreciably weakened.