中国能源消费与经济增长的因果关系研究

A Study of Causal Relations between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in China

能源消费与经济增长之间存在着密切的关系,节能降耗是否会付出经济发展的成本,取决于能源消费与经济增长之间的因果关系:如果存在由经济发展向能源消费的单向因果关系,则节能降耗对经济发展的影响比较小;如果存在能源消费向经济发展的单向因果关系或者双向的因果关系,则节能降耗将会使经济发展受到影响。中国当前的能源消费问题主要表现为经济增长拉动的能源消费增长,但对于煤炭、石油、天然气而言,它们与经济发展的因果关系并不一致。因此,能源问题必须区别对待,根据经济发展和能源消费的特点,有侧重地制定降耗的任务。

There is an intimate relationship between energy consumption （EC）and economic groxc_h （EG）. It is argued that whether energy conservation reduces or increases the cost of EG depends on the causal relationship between EG and EC. If the causal relationship is one-way fi＇om EG to EC, the impact of energy conservation on EG will be very weak; if the causal relationship is one-way or two-way from EC to EG, then energy conservation will slow down EG. The problem with China＇s EC lies in the fact that its EG leads to increases in EC, whereas the causal relations between such types of energy as coal, petroleum and natural gas and economic development are far from consistent. It follows that energy problems must be tackled differently and the plan for energy conservation should be made according to the characteristics of EG and EC.