青藏高原冷暖气候变化趋势的R／S分析及Hurst指数试验研究

Fractal analysis of climate change and Hurst Index experiment in Tibetan Plateau in future

利用青藏高原1953—2002年77个气象台站的常规地面观测资料，选择不同类型变化趋势的部分台站。选取年平均气温（T^-）、年平均最低气温（tmin^-）、年平均最高气温（Tmax^-）、年极端最低气温（tmin）、年极端最高气温（Tmax）5项气候要素，运用R／S分析法研究并预测了青藏高原未来冷暖气候变化趋势，研究表明：青藏高原未来冷暖气候变化趋势与过去50年以来的变化有着很好的自相似性。今后青藏高原总体将继续变暖，用分形理论的原理，设计了一种Hurst指数试验。对青藏高原北部和南部的年平均气温、年平均最低气温进行了试验研究。结果表明：依据青藏高原北部和南部的区域平均气候倾向率，未来10年，T^-将升高0．2～0．4℃；tmin^-将升高0．3～0．5℃；tmin将升高0．7～0．8℃；Tmax^-将升高0．3～0．4℃；Tmax将升高0．4～0．6℃。其中年平均气温、年平均最低气温升高趋势的持续性很强，期间没有转折，没有冷暖变化的突变点。

The paper chooses five meteorological elements ： yearly average temperature （T^-） yearly average minimum temperature （tmin^-）, yearly average maximum temperature（Tmax^- ）, yearly extremely minimum temperature （tmin） and yearly extremely maximum temperature（ Tmax ）from 1953 to 2002 in some meteorological stations with different climate change tendency in Tibetan Plateau area to study and predict the climate change of Tibetan Plateau in future using R/S method. The results show that, there is a self-similarity between the future climate change tendency with that of past 50 years in Tibetan Plateau. The climate of Tibetan Plateau will become warmer. According to the average climate slope in the North and South of Tibetan Plateau ,Twill rise 0.2 -0.4 ℃, tmin^- will rise 0.3 -0.5℃, tmin will rise 0.7 - 0.8 ℃, Tmax will rise 0.3 - 0. 4 ℃ and Tmax will rise 0.4 - 0.6 ℃ in the next ten years. By the basic principle of fractal theory, the author designs Hurst index experiment which is a big sample sequence experiment with moving average process and the sequence length is 20 years. The Hurst index experiments of T^- and tmin^- in the North and South of Tibetan Plateau are carried out. By those experiment, the paper wants to solve those problems that how the persistence intensity of rising tendency of T^- and tmin^- will change, and whether the change tendency will have the transition or discontinuity point. The experiment results show that the persistence intensity of T^- and tmin^- in Tibetan Plateau is stronger, and there is no transition and discontinuity of warm and cold change.