我国三次产业能源消费与节能状况的实证分析

Empirical Analysis of China's Energy Consumption/Saving in Different Types of Industries

运用经济增长理论，论述了我国产业结构与产业能源消费之间的关系及特点，分析了1980-2005年三次产业能源消费弹性系数和节能率的变化趋势。通过分析得出结论：我国产业结构的特点决定了产业能源消费以第二产业为主；第二产业的能源消费弹性系数在1985-2001年间比较稳定，基本稳定在0．32～0．63之间，从2002年开始反弹，数值大于1，而第一产业和第三产业的能源消费弹性系数波动较大，其平均数值要高于第二产业；高耗能行业的能源消费量逐年上升，节能形势比较严峻。因此，要采取有效的节能措施，努力降低工业、农业和交通运输业等重点行业的能耗，加快建设资源节约型社会，保证经济的可持续增长。

Explores China＇s industrial energy consumption in relation to the industry mix in accordance to the theory of economic growth. Analyzes the elastic coefficients of energy consumption and the trend of energy saving rates of the three types of industries in the period from 1980 to 2005. The results indicate that the principal energy consumption was due to the secondary industry, of which the elastic coefficient was stable basically in the range from 0.32 to 0.63 in the period 1985-2001. But it rebounded up to over 1.0 from 2002. On the other hand, the elastic coefficients of energy consumption of the first and tertiary industries fluctuated greatly and the mean value was higher than the secondary industry. Nowadays the energy consumption of high energy-consuming industries rises year after year and threaten seriously the energy-saving measures we took. So, it is necessary to take more efficient measures to reduce the energy consumption in industrial, farming and transportation lines, which are crucial to the sustainable economic growth and accelerating the construction of a resource-saving society.