SD-MOP整合模型在生态工业园规划中的应用探析

Application Study of SD-MOP Integrated Model in Eco-industrial Park Planning

生态工业园作为区域产业生态系统,由产业、人口、资源、经济和生态环境等子系统组成。它的持续发展依赖于各子系统的结构合理、功能完整以及各子系统的协调发展和有效控制。文章结合系统动力学模型和多目标规划方法优点,提出了应用于生态工业园规划的整合模型研究思路。从生态工业系统的整体结构功能模拟优化出发,建立生态工业系统动力学(SD)模型,通过模型的原始运行和灵敏度分析,寻找出对工业园发展影响较大的关键点及与之相应的参变量,以此为核心建立多目标规划(MOP)模型,求解MOP模型获取关键点最优解集。再根据模型的解,针对具体情况设计模拟运行方案,与决策者进行交互,取得系统发展的优化规划方案。该整合模型为生态工业园的规划和宏观调控提供了一个新的研究方法,并可为工业系统的可持续发展提供技术支持。

As an area industrial ecosystem, the eco- industrial park （EIP） composes of subsystems such as industry, population, resource and environment etc. Sustainability in EIP depends upon the reasonable structure, complete function, harmonious development of each subsystem and their effective adjustment. With a combination of advantages of system dynamics （SD） model and multiple objectives programming （MOP） method, this study develops a new thought to apply their integrated model in EIP planning. Starting with simulating and optimizing the overall structure and function of the industrial ecosystem, the SD model of the industrial ecosystem is constructed. By running the model and the sensible analysis, the key points and related variables, which are defined as the main factors of influencing on the EIP development, are identified. The MOP model is further constructed based on those key points and related variables. The optimum planning proposal of system development is formulated according to the solution of the MOP model and comments from decision - makers. This integrated model provides a new method for the planning and macro -control of EIP, and supposes sustainable development of industry system.