灾害性天气总结中存在的问题和关键要点分析

Analysis of Existing Problems and Key Points in Summarizing Disaster Weather

为了帮助预报员加深对灾害性天气的认识并提高其预报预测准确率,联系近2～3年来武汉中心气象台灾害性天气总结实际,分析了灾害性天气总结中存在的若干问题,并对其原因进行了简要剖析;在此基础上,以若干灾害性天气总结为例,归纳了灾害性天气总结的关键要点,即从预报业务实践中提炼科学问题,综合应用多种探测资料,重视灾害性天气数值模拟和试验研究,加强灾害性天气形成机理研究,尝试灾害性天气三维结构和物理图像的总结,加强灾害性天气可预报性问题探讨,注重灾害性天气预报思路和着眼点的总结;最后,就如何做好灾害性天气总结和充分发挥其效益,提出了几点建议。

To help the forecasters deepen the knowledge of disaster weather and improve its forecasting accuracy, the existing problems and its causes are analyzed with the disaster weather concluded by forecasters in Wuhan Central Meteorological Observatory in recent 2-3 years. The key points concluded in summarizing disaster weather are abstracting scientific issues from the weather forecasting operation, applying multiple detected data comprehensively, paying more attention to the numerical simulation and experimental research, enhancing the investigation of its formation mechanism, attempting the conclusion of its three-dimensional structure and physical images, investigating its predictability and deducing the forecasting methods, clues and respect. Lastly, several suggestions are proposed for making the the disastrous weather conclusion best and effectively.