海洋鱼类疾病诊断系统中的多参数的证据不确定性推理机制

Study on Reasoning Mechanism with Uncertain Evidence Caused by Dual-factor Method Used in the Disease Diagnostic System of Ocean Fishes

在分析、归纳、总结不确定性推理相关问题的基础上,提出基于充分性参数、必要性参数和可信度因子(规则强度)等多参数的证据不确定性推理方法。该方法能够表示具有复杂不确定性加权关系的诊断规则,并且能够根据证据规则的约束条件通过数值计算获取规则的不确定性相关参数;通过在开发的海洋鱼类疾病诊断专家系统中的应用,很好地体现了疾病诊断中存在的不确定性,有效地减少了主观因素对诊断结论准确性的影响。

By providing the reasoning mechanism with uncertain evidence based on sufficient factors, necessary factors and confidence factors （regulation intensity）, this paper analyses the concerning problems of it. The method can indicate the rules of the diagnosis system of complicated relationships between the conditions, and according to the conditions in the rules, the uncertain factors of rules can be obtained by calculating numbers; It has been applied to the developed expert system of ocean fish disease, successfully showing the uncertainty in the disease diagnosis, and thus efficiently reducing the bad impact on diagnosis by people’s subjectiveness.