公共资本、政府公共支出与省区经济增长收敛再检验——基于面板数据模型实证分析

The Reinsertion of the Relationship between the Convergence Analyses of Economic Growth and Public Expenditure among Provinces:A Study Based on the Panel Data Model

本文在测算1990-2005年31个省市的生产性公共资本存量基础上,通过研究公共支出对经济增长的贡献弹性发现:非生产性公共支出与经济增长呈负相关关系,公共资本却有利于省区经济增长。经济增长收敛模型的实证结果表明包含公共资本和公共支出的结构变量的情况下,20世纪90年代以来出现新古典经济增长收敛趋势。上述结论为政府公共支出的增量规模与结构优化提供理论借鉴。最后给出改变目前省区公共支出状况的政策建议,也将是缩小区域经济差距的有效措施。

This paper firstly gives the calculation of the productive public capital stock of 31 provinces during 1990 - 2005. Through the research of contribution elasticity of public disbursement to the economy, it found that： the unproductive public disbursement and the economical growth have the inverse correlation relations, on the contrary, the public capital is actually advantageous to the provincial capital area economy growth, The empirical research results for convergence of interprovincial economic growth model indicate neoclassical growth convergence trend by containing the common disbursement variable since 1990＇ s. The conclusion draws lessons for common disbursement of government increment scale and structural optimization. Finally it gives the policy suggestion on changing public expenditure in provinces at present, which will also be the effective measure to reduce regional economies gap.