中国省际综合交通发展水平的定量分析

THE QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS OF THE SYNTHETICAL DEGREE OF TRAFFIC DEVELOPMENT AMONG DIFFERENT PROVINCES IN CHINA

首先选取2005年全国30个省、市、自治区的5个交通运输指标(国家铁路长度,内河航道长度,公路长度以及反映各运输方式灵活度及运送量的货运总量和货物周转5个指标),应用SPSS统计软件对此进行了主成分分析;然后利用聚类分析方法得到了全国综合交通发展水平的区域谱系图;最后在此基础上,探讨了全国省际综合发展水平的区域相似性和差异性。研究结果表明该方法不仅可以克服传统的基于人工选用指标进行综合分析所存在的数据不易处理的缺陷,而且结果准确性高,是对中国交通发展水平进行定量分析的一种新尝试。

5 indices including national railroad length, the inland river channel length, highway length, freight gross and turnover of 30 provinces, municipalities autonomous regions in China by year 2005 were firstly selected to analyze the principal components using SPSS; then, the results of principal component analysis （PCA） was clustered using systemic cluster analysis method and the pedigree map was plotted; finally, on the basis of this pedigree map, the comparabilities and differences of the synthetical degree of traffic development among different provinces were explored. The results suggest that the integration of PCA and systemic cluster analysis is useful to analyze the synthetical degree of traffic development in China, not only it can conquer the defects of traditional method which has the problem in data processing based on man - made selective index, but also its high accuracy. In sum, the method of integration of PCA and systemic cluster analysis is tentative to analyze the synthetical degree of traffic development quantitatively.