农村剩余劳动力跨省迁移的实证分析

The Empirical Analysis on the Rural Residual Labor Forces' Trans-regional Migration in China

本文将农民作为市场经济的理性主体,利用第五次人口普查的数据,使用线性化的logit模型,对影响农村劳动力跨省迁移的概率和流向等因素进行实证分析。结果表明,迁出地的人均耕地、劳动者受教育状况、农业劳动生产率、城镇居民收入以及两地距离等对农村劳动力的跨省迁移具有显著影响。

This paper focusing on the rural residual labor forces＇ trans-regional migration, tries to make a preliminary exploration on that. Based on the presumption of self-interested person, the paper employs an econometric method of linear logit model to carry on the analysis. A principle source of data is the fifth national census in 2000. The analysis shows that factors like cultivated land per capita, education, productivity of agriculture, distance, etc. have notable influence on the trans-regional migration of surplus labor in rural areas.