中国高等教育地域结构实证分析

Positive Analysis of Geographical Structure of Higher Education in China

高等教育大众化发展的过程中,我国的高等教育发展是不均衡的,这对未来的发展十分有害。在高等教育大众化实现之后,应该从高等教育毛入学率入手,探讨我国的高等教育发展不均衡的走向,按照规律进行调整,完成我国高等教育大众化由"量变"到"质变"的转化。借助模型生命表完成对未来十五年全国分地区高等教育适龄(18岁至22岁)人口数的预测,以此来计算未来十五年全国分地区高等教育的毛入学率,分析中国高等教育大众化内部地域结构差异的趋势问题,以期找到对高等教育大众化发展的内部结构进行调整的方向。

In the process of higher education popularization,the development of higher education in our country is not balanced,which is harmful for future development. After the goal of higher education popularization is achieved,we should explore the unbalanced development tendency of higher education in China,starting with the gross enrollment rate of higher education. We should also adjust according to the law to accomplish the transformation of China's higher education popularization from 'quantity' to 'quality'. In this paper,the model life tables are used to predict the college-age population (aged 18 to 22 years old) in the next 15 years in the country's different areas. Thus,the gross enrollment rate is calculated for the next 15 years,and the trend of internal geographical structure differences in higher education popularization is analyzed. The purpose is to find out how to adjust the internal structure in the development of higher education popularization.