农业生产与经济增长关系的均衡分析

An Equilibrium Analysis on the Relationship Between Agricultural Production and Economic Growth

为探讨我国农业生产与经济增长之间的关系,选取1978-2006年我国历年农业产值和国内生产总值序列进行协整检验,结果表明我国农业生产与经济增长之间存在着长期稳定的动态均衡关系,农业产值每增加1%,将促进经济增长2.12%;误差修正模型表明,农业生产的短期变化对经济增长有显著的正效应,如果本期的经济增长偏离长期均衡值,那么到下一时期这一偏离度将有8%得以纠正;Granger因果关系检验表明,农业生产对经济增长具有短期效应,经济增长对农业生产具有长期促进作用;脉冲响应函数分析和方差分解的结果进一步表明,农业生产对经济增长的贡献较显著。

In order to discuss the relationship between agricultural production and economic growth in China, It makes an co-integration test according to the corresponding data from 1978 to 2006 in China. The results show that there is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between agricultural production and economic growth. If the agricuhural production increases by 1%, the economic will increase by 2. 12%. With the error correction model, the results show that the short-term fluctuation of agricultural production would cause the same-way change of GDP. If GDP deviate from the long-halanced value, it would be adjusted by 8% in next year. With the Granger causality test, the results show that agricultural production has the short-term effect to economic growth. The economic growth has the long-term effect to agricultural production. With the impulse response function and variance decomposition, the results show that agricultural production plays an important role on economic growth.