日元套利交易的变化以及日元汇率的未来走势

Changes in JPY carry trade and outlook for JPY value

文章回顾了2007年夏季以来国际货币期货交易市场上日元套利交易的变化特点,从货币利差,对冲基金交易损益点以及基金投资方式的变化等角度解释了影响日元头寸变化的原因,并就日元汇率的长期变动趋势进行了预测。

This paper reviews the characteristics of the changes in JPY carry trade since the summer of 2007 in the global currency futures market. It explains the reasons for the changing yen positions from the perspective of currency interest-rate differential, stop--loss level of hedge funds and investment modes of funds. Finally, the author builds anticipation for the long-term trend of yen＇s value.