中国房地产上市公司盈利预测自愿性披露研究

A Study on Voluntary Disclosure of Earnings Forecast of Real Estate Listed Company in China

目的为了提高房地产上市公司盈利预测信息自愿披露水平,减少资本市场的信息不对称,提高信息使用者决策和评价的有效性,提高证券市场的效率.方法运用描述性统计分析方法并结合规范分析方法.结果发现了中国房地产上市公司自愿披露盈利预测信息的意愿不足,并从宏观、微观层面分析了存在问题的原因.结论结合中国实际,建立了"以宏观监管为主导,以市场调解为保障"的监管体系,提出了以激励引导为主的"完善制度—奖惩结合—行业引导"的监管路径.

In order to improve voluntary disclosure of earnings forecast of real estate listed company, to reduce information asymmetry in capital market, to enhance the validity of decision- making and evaluation by the information user, and to increase securities business efficiency, this paper presents that Chinese real estate listed companies mostly lack desire for voluntary disclosure of earnings forecast. With descriptive statistic and criterion analysis, it also shows up the cause of problems from macroscopical and microcosmic aspects. Integrated with Chinese condition, it suggests that an inspection system with macroscopical inspection and market conciliation should be established. And as a result, it puts forward an inspiration oriented inspection route with system consummating, rewards and punishment combining, and industry instructing.