转型期的资本投资、产业结构与中国就业效应

Capital Investment,Industrial Structure and Employment in a Transforming China

通过构建劳动需求的多因素模型,对转型期影响就业的因素进行回归分析与协整检验,结果显示:资本投资、产业结构变动方向和速度、实际工资是影响转型期中国就业的主要因素;资本投资、产业结构变动方向、实际工资与就业正相关,产业结构变动速度与就业负相关;产业结构变动的就业创造效应大于就业破坏效应,产业结构变动的净结果使就业增加;转型期的就业与资本投资、产业结构变动方向及速度之间存在长期稳定的协整关系。

With a regression analysis and co-integration test so to construct a multi-factor model of labor demand, this study makes clear that such factors as capital investment, the tendency of and frequency in the changes of industrial structure and real wage are responsible to the employment in China in her transforming stage. While capital investment, the changing tende related with the employment, the effect of changing ncy of industrial structure and real wage are positively corrate of industrial structure on the employment is negatively correlated with the employment. The changes are more constructive than destructive to the employment and, as a result, more jobs are created. It can be concluded that a long-term co-integrated relationship with stability exists there between the employment and the factors mentioned.