低生育水平下的生育意愿研究

A Study of the Child-Bearing Desire with a Low Fertility Rate

本文是课题组2006-2007年在江苏六县/市开展调查的初步分析报告。本调查从多个角度测量收集了有关生育意愿、生育观念、生育计划及其影响因素的信息,初步探讨了生育的政策、意愿、计划、行为之间的关系。调查发现,育龄妇女的意愿生育水平和实际生育水平都远远低于更替水平,理想子女数、现有子女数、生育打算和政策允许的生育子女数之间存在差距。育龄妇女对子女作用和子女价值的认识已经变化,精神需求是生育的重要理由。生育政策对人们的生育意愿和生育行为的影响已不是首要因素,经济、社会、文化等因素才影响人们的生育决策。

The paper is a preliminary report about a survey conducted in Jiangsu province during 2006-2007 by the research team. The survey collected data on the child-bearing desire, attitudes to child-bearing, the family plan, and determinant factors, exploring relationships among the fertility policy, child-bearing desire, the family plan and practice. The main findings indicate that the child-bearing desire and actual fertility of women of child-bearing age are both far below the replacement level; there are gaps between the desired number of children and the actual number of children as well as the permitted number of children by policy; as the opinions on the role and value of children held by women of child-bearing age change, spiritual demand is the most important reason for having children; birth control policy still affects people＇s child-bearing desire and practice, but is no longer the chief determinant while people＇s decision on childbearing is influenced by economic, social and cultural factors.