金融发展对中国制造业出口结构优化影响的实证分析

The Empirical Analysis on the effect of Financial Development on the Optimization of Export Composition in China’s Manufactures

本文利用中国27个制造行业1992～2005年的面板数据对金融发展优化制造业出口结构的作用加以分析,结论认为,融资能力改善存在优化出口结构的作用,但在不同制造业存在较大差异;金融结构优化促进出口结构优化的作用相对较弱,相当数量的制造业并未因此受到明显影响。上述两种作用均对机械设备、交通运输等制造业出口份额增长产生显著正面影响,但对其他资本密集型行业的影响较小,对劳动密集型行业出口份额增长则具有负面影响。目前,流动性过剩状况为金融发展优化制造业出口结构创造了有利条件,应抓住这一时机推进制造业出口结构升级。文章最后根据分析结论提出了相关政策建议。

By using panel data which across 27 manufacture industries in China from 1992 to 2005,this paper analyzed the effect of financial development on export composition's optimization in China's manufactures.The result shows that the improvement of capability of financing could promote export structure's upgrade while the magnitude was much varied in different manufactures and effect of optimization of financial structure was not more effective than that of improvement of capability of financing because certain industries were hardly affected by that.Both of the effects promoted export shares of mechanism and transportation equipments remarkably but had little role on other capital and tech intensive industries while they placed negative roles on export shares of labor intensive industries prominently.Currently financial development could play great role on export composition's optimization in circumstance of excessive fluidity which should be a good chance to take.Finally,suggestions on policy were referred to consequent conclusions.