三维溢油动态预报模式

A Three Dimensional Model to Predict the Behavior of Oil Spills

基于“油粒子”概念建立了模拟海上溢油行为的三维数值模型。模型运用确定性方法模拟平流过程，采用随机性方法模拟湍流扩散过程。“粒子扩散”方法避开了“平流—扩散”传统数值方法所导致的伪扩散效应，同时将油由于自身特性的扩展与受环境动力作用的被动扩展融为一体，较好地解决了油膜的扩散和破裂问题。通过模拟结果与卫星遥感监测资料的比较表明，模拟的溢油漂移方向误差不超过２０°，厚油区的分布面积与卫片资料基本一致。

A three dimensional numerical model of oil spills was developed based on the particle approach.In the model,the advection process was simulated with the determined method and the eddy dispertsion was simulated with the stochastic method.The method avoids the pseudo diffusional effect which is resulted from the mumerical solution of the advection diffusion problem with the conventional numerical methos.Aoso,the model combined the spreadin due to the characteristics of the oil itself with that due to the environmental dynamics factors.So the problems such as the dispersion and breaking of the oil spill are well soved.The results indicated that the error of the drift direction between the modelled results and the data from the man-made satellite of the oil spills is less than 20 degree and the area covered by the thicker part of the oil spill is agreement with the satellite data.