房地产新政如何影响住房市场

How will New Policy of Real Estate Affect Its Prices

迄今还没有对2006年出台的"房地产新政"如何影响住房市场正式的理论分析,本文受到张五常教授在网上广为流传相关结论的启发,构建了一个正式的分析框架,并全面得出四条结论。即新政后大套户型的价格将飙升、小套户型的价格将有所上涨、土地的价格也会明显上升、开发商不会因为大户型价格的飞涨而蜂拥而至,从而使得一些户型市场极度萎缩甚至消失。另外,本文提供的分析框架较为一般性,很多有关对不同户型的土地限制政策以及价格调控都可利用本文的框架予以分析。

There has not any formal theory to analysis the affects of New Policy of Real Estate till now. Enlightened by the widely spreading conclusions of Professor Zhang, the paper set up a formal theory, and then comesto four main conclusions compared to Professor Zhang＇s. Additionally, the model is somewhat generally and can also be used to analysis any similar policy＇s effects.