基于旅游学角度的游客量预测模型构建及其实证研究

Construction and Demonstration Research for Number of Tourist Forecasting Theory Model Based on the Development Rules of Tourism

对旅游地游客量的预测研究,本文先构建基于旅游学基础的理论公式,再运用相应的数理统计方法进行数据处理以预测旅游地未来游客量变化趋势。在研究中引入游客量增长"速度"和"加速度"概念以及其他相关变量,构建了旅游地游客量的理论模型,赋予模型中各常数项以旅游学涵义及模型运用条件,结合旅游地生命周期理论探寻旅游地游客量最大值及到达时间的预测问题,在研究理论和方法上取得了一定的进展。

For the research of forecasting numbers of tourist in tourism destination, author takes two steps, first, constructs forecasting theory model which obeyed the rules of tourism law, then uses the corresponding mathematic theories to dispose tourists＇ data and forecasts the future tendency in tourism destination. In this study, author imports the concepts of velocity and acceleration and other relevant variables to construct the model for endowing the constant terms with tourism meanings, gives the conditions for using the model. Combine with the theory of tourism area lifecycle, the model can be used to forecast the max numbers and time in tourism area.