区域经济增长的城乡结构效应分析——以广东、江苏、浙江三省为例

Influence Analysis of Urban & Rural Structure in the Process of Economic Growth

从城乡协调这一视角可将经济结构分解成产业结构、就业结构、收入结构和消费结构四个要素(变量),在分析广东、江苏和浙江该四个要素与经济增长的相关性基础上,通过对广东、江苏和浙江三省1978-2005年的结构变量对经济增长贡献率的计量分析发现,产业结构和就业结构变量对经济增长发挥了积极的作用,而反映城乡收入差距和消费差距的收入结构和消费结构对三省经济增长有着负面的影响。要推进区域经济的快速增长,就完善城乡结构而言,既要加快产业结构和就业结构的调整,实现由第一产业为主导转向第二、第三产业为主导和农业人口向非农就业的转化,同时,还必须兼顾城乡收入差距和消费能力这两个重要要素,逐步缩小城乡收入差距,提高农村居民的消费能力。

Under a visual angle of urban ＆ rural harmony, we resolve economic structure into four parts-industry structure, employment structure, income structure and consumption structure. Based on the correlated analysis of those elements and economic growth and on the metric analysis of the rate of contribution to economic growth by the structure change during the period of 1978-2005 among Guangdong, Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces, we have found that industry, structure and employment structure have taken active part in the growth of economy, while the other two elements have make negative impact on economic growth. To promote the rapidly speed of structure, we should fastem the regulation on the industry and employment, carry out the trend from the first industry into the second and the third one, and more and more employee come from rural area woke in the cities and towns, and at the same time, we should consider of the income ＆ consumption distinction between those people live in the urban and rural area, reduce the income difference and enhance the rural consumption capability.