摘要
为提高电网负荷预测的准确率,分别运用加权移动平均预测技术和GM(1,1)模型对华北电网的售电量进行了预测,借助Matlab软件,得到了预测结果.最后对2种预测方法的误差指标进行了比较,结果表明,GM(1,1)模型的预测精度比加权移动平均法理想,说明该方法的应用前景广阔.
It is important to improve accuracy of electric power grid load forecast. The weighted moving average method and GM （ 1,1 ） model to forecast the sales of electric energy in North China Power Grid respectively are used,then the forecast result by the way of the Matlab software is given. Finally,there is a comparison between the error indexes of the two forecasting methods,and it turns out to be that the forecasting accuracy of GM（ 1,1 ） model is better than weighted moving average method. This method has a prospect for application.
出处
《华北水利水电学院学报》
2008年第1期67-70,共4页
North China Institute of Water Conservancy and Hydroelectric Power
关键词
华北电网
售电量
加权移动平均法
GM(1
1)模型
误差
North China Power Grid
the sales of electric energy
weighted moving average method
GM （ 1,1 ） model
error
