能源-经济-环境(3E)系统协调度评价模型研究

On the Coordinating Evaluation Model for Energy-Economy-Environment System

能源系统与经济系统、环境系统存在着相互影响、相互制约的发展关系,三者的协调发展是3E系统发展的最终目标。虽然有关系统协调的研究较多,但大多现有模型与方法难以解决如3E系统这样的复杂社会系统的协调问题,因此通过研究系统协调的概念与内涵,以解决社会复杂系统的协调发展问题为主要目标,从系统发展速度的角度重新给出了系统协调度的数量表达式,并在此基础上建立了3E系统协调度评价模型。通过实证研究证明该模型能够定量化的表达3E系统协调发展状况,从而为3E系统协调发展策略的制定与选择提供决策依据。

The coordinated development is the final goal of Energy-Economy-Environment system because of the complicatedly interde- pendent and interactional relationships among them. Although there have been plenty of researches on system coordination, most of them hardly solve the coordinating problems in the field of complicated social systems. To achieve this purpose, on the basis of the analysis of the concept and connotation of system coordination, this paper redefines the quantitative expression of system coordination arid builds a set of coordinating evaluation models for 3E system. Its application testifies that the coordinating evaluation model and the corresponding calculating method can express quantitatively the status of coordinating development of 3E system, which provides the decision gist for strategy making.