我国出口商品结构和经济增长关系的实证分析

Empirical Analysis between Commodity Export Structure and Economic Growth in China

本文从出口商品结构的角度,对我国1985-2006年间的初级产品和工业制成品出口分类的数据和GDP数据,运用协整等方法分析了出口商品结构同经济增长的关系。结论是:短期内,初级产品和工业制成品的出口都对经济增长起到促进作用,但是经济增长对初级产品或工业制成品出口的反作用却不明显。长期内,工业制成品出口对经济增长起促进作用,而初级产品出口对经济增长起消极作用。

This paper explores the relationship between export commodity structure and economic growth in China from 1984 to 2006 by using the analysis method of cointegration. Empirical results reveal that the export expansion of both primary goods and manufactured goods has favorable impact on economic growth in the short run while the interaction is weak reversely. The long-term effect of the export expansion of manufactured goods is positive on economic growth while that of the primary goods is negative.