能源价格对能源强度和经济增长影响的CGE研究

The Impact on Energy Intensity and Economic Growth Exerted by Energy Price: a CGE Approach

将能源替代模块和能源强度指标纳入中国CGE模型—MCHUGE模型,研究提高能源价格对能源强度和经济增长的影响。研究表明:提高能源价格在短期和长期均能显著降低中国能源强度,其原因是能源价格的提高优化了中国经济产业结构,第二产业尤其是重工业在GDP中所占比重下降,减少了总体的能源消费。但是能源价格提高对宏观经济带来了较大的负面影响,其导致的出口下降和投资需求下降分别是短期和长期GDP下降的主要原因。

In this paper, an energy substitution module and the index of energy intensity are added to the Chinese CGE model- MCHUGE model in order to evaluate the impact on energy intensity and economic growth imposed by energy price. Study shows that the increase of energy price shall reduce China＇ s energy intensity sharply both in the short run and long run, because the increased energy price optimizes the industrial structure of Chinese economyo The proportion of secondary industry especially the proportion of heave industry in GDP drops, and the overall energy＇s consumption has been decreased. However, increase of energy price will also bring lots of side effects on China＇s macro economy such as the recession of China＇s export and investment demand, which in turn undermine the GDP growth in China both in the short run and long run.