基于“压力-状态-响应”模型的黑龙江省生态安全评价研究

Ecological Security Evaluation of Heilongjiang Province with Pressure-State-Response Model

采用“压力-状态-响应”模型,选取27项指标,构建黑龙江省生态安全评价指标体系.利用层次分析法确定各指标的权重,运用生态安全度计算模型,对2000-2005年黑龙江省生态安全状况进行分级评价;应用灰色动态模型,预测黑龙江省2006-2010年生态安全的发展趋势.计算结果表明,2000年黑龙江省处于生态安全Ⅴ级;2005年黑龙江省处于生态安全Ⅲ级,生态安全有所提高.预测得到,2006年黑龙江省为生态安全Ⅲ级,2007-2009年均为生态安全Ⅱ级,2010年达到生态安全Ⅰ级,即理想安全.由此可见,黑龙江省生态安全呈现上升的发展趋势;自2000年黑龙江省开展生态省建设以来,生态环境质量得到了明显改善.通过推动生态省建设等有效手段,可以最终实现黑龙江省生态安全持续和健康发展.

The ecological security index（ESI） system including 27 indices for Heilongjiang Province was built up with the pressure-state-response（P-S-R） model.The weights of the indices were determined by analytical hierarchy process（AHP） and the ecological security status classification was evaluated by the ESI model for the years of 2000-2005.Then the development trend of ecological security from 2006 to 2010 was forecasted with the grey dynamic model.The results showed that the ecological security ranked the Ⅴ grade in 2000 and the Ⅲ grade in 2005,indicating the increase of ecological security.The forecasting results show that the ecological security will be the Ⅲ grade for 2006,the Ⅱ grade for 20072009,and the Ⅰ grade for 2010（ideal security）.Thus it can be seen that the ecological security is ascending year by year,and the ecological environment quality is obviously improved with the implementation of eco-province construction since 2000.Through the effective facilitation of eco-province construction etc.,the sustainable and healthy development of ecological security will be finally realized in Heilongjiang Province.