对中国“米德冲突”的思考

A Study on China's Mead's Conflict

20世纪90年代以来我国出现两次比较明显的"米德冲突"。第一次出现在1992—1996年,第二次明显地出现在2007年。两次米德冲突均是以"国内通货膨胀+国际收支顺差"的形式出现,只是第二次的冲突比较强烈。理论上讲,我国解决米德冲突的最佳方案是实行浮动汇率制度。但从现实来看,我国目前对外经济的失衡是多种因素导致的。如国内消费的相对不足、奖出限入的外贸政策以及对外资的优惠政策等等。因此,仅仅依靠人民币汇率制度改革还不能有效地解决米德冲突难题,需要多管齐下、综合治理,才能更好地实现内外均衡。

China has experienced Mead＇s Conflict for two times since the 90＇s of the 20th century. The first occurred from 1992 to 1996, the second emerged in 2007. The performance of these two Mead＇s Conflict is both “Domestic Currency Inflation and International Favorable Balance of Payment”, Theoretically, the best way to solve Mead＇s Conflict is the transformation of RMB＇s exchange rate system from fixing to floating. In fact, the big surplus of the balance of payments in China results from several factors, such as the inadequacy of domestic consumption, unreasonable trade policy and so on, therefore, the reform of RMB＇s exchange rate is not a efficiency way to solve this problem, then a series of measures to deal with the Mead＇s Conflict are put forward.