基于ARMR模型的河北省“十一五”时期三次产业就业人数预测分析

Analysis and Forecast on Employment Number of Thrice Industry in Hebei during the Eleventh Five-Year Plan Period Based on ARMA Model

随着经济的不断发展,三次产业产值结构的调整必然带来就业结构的调整。通过建立河北省三次产业就业人数的时间序列ARMA模型,对河北省"十一五"时期三次产业就业人数进行了预测,分析了其特点,并提出了优化调整河北省三次产业就业结构的对策。

With the rapid economy development,the change of thrice industrial structure brings about the adjustment of employment structure. Based on ARMA model,this paper forecasts the employment number of thrice industry in Hebei during the eleventh five-year plan period, analyzes its characteristics and puts forward some suggestions on adjusting and optimizing industrial structure.