西北地区热量资源对气候变化的响应特征

Characteristics of Heat Resources in Response to Climate Change in Northwest China

基于西北5省（区）150个测站1961～2003年历年日平均气温,引入气候趋势系数和气候倾向率,对〈0℃负积温、〉0℃和〉10℃积温对气候变化的响应特征进行分析。采用EOF分解后的时间系数,利用小波和M-K分析方法,对〈0℃负积温、〉0℃和〉10℃积温的时间演变特征进行分析。结果表明：西北地区〈0℃负积温表现为全区一致增加趋势,平均气候倾向率为52.9℃/10 a,增长最快;〉0℃积温的平均气候倾向率为50.7℃/10 a,西北地区〉10℃积温的平均气候倾向率为49.3℃/10 a,增长最慢。〈0℃负积温、〉0℃和〉10℃积温均从1986年开始增加,在1995年后增加趋势更加明显。1987年是负积温显著增温的突变年份,〉0℃积温在1996年前后发生突变,〉10℃积温在1995年前后发生突变。小波分析结果呈现出〈0℃负积温存在准6 a和准9 a的振荡周期;〉0℃和〉10℃积温存在准8 a变化周期。

Based on the daily average temperature of 150 weather stations in northwest China from 1961 to 2003,the characteristics of the 〈0 ℃,〉0 ℃ and 〉10 ℃ accumulated temperature in response to climate change have been analyzed by using climatic tendency coefficient and climatic tendency quotiety.The interannual change of 〈0 ℃,〉0 ℃ and 〉10 ℃ accumulated temperature have been analyzed based on the time coefficient from EOF by means of wavelet analysis and Mann-Kendall method.The results show that 〈0 ℃,〉0 ℃ and 〉10 ℃ accumulated temperature presented increasing trend in Northwestern China,and the mean climatic tendency quotieties of 〈0 ℃ negative accumulated temperature,〉0 ℃ and 〉10 ℃accumulated temperature are 52.9 ℃/10 a,50.7 ℃/10 a,49.3 ℃/10 a,respectively.