中国农产品进口贸易变化特征分析

Analysis on Characteristic of Chinese Agricultural Product Import

首先依据WTO《农业协议》中的农产品口径汇总了1992—2004年期间中国农产品进口贸易额,通过离散系数的比较发现进口额波动强度大;然后采用趋势分解法对中国农产品进口额进行时间趋势拟合,实证分析结果表明,中国农产品进口急剧上升主要受需求影响。

This paper firstly calculates Chinese agricultural product import trade of from 1992 to 2004 based on Agreement of Agricultural, conclusion that fluctuate on import trade is great by calculating discrete coefficient, and then carry on the time tendency fitting to the Chinese agricultural product import amount by time trend. The reason that Chinese agricultural product import is booming mainly depends on demand.