权力交接与俄罗斯未来走向

Power Hand-over and Russia’s Future Orientation

2007-2008年岁末年初，俄罗斯相继迎来杜马和总统选举，这是普京执政八年来俄重要的权力交接，将决定俄未来国家走向。普京致力于确保政权交接后治国方针的连续性，以最终实现强国战略：政治上，在确立普京“民族领袖”地位、延续强权总统体制的同时，确立“政权党”独占鳌头的政党体制并精心进行人事布局，打造忠诚团队，形成“梅普配”的权力运作模式；经济上，在强化国家对战略行业的掌控，以能源和高科技为支柱形成竞争力、提升创新力以带动经济复兴的同时，确定国家中长期发展战略，并为下任总统做好“账本”；在对外政策上，普京为“一个无须害怕或讨好西方就能生存的政治和社会制度奠定了基础”，俄摆脱了对西方财政依赖，彻底改变了受制于人状态，并随着自身实力的增强和国际形势的变化，形成了新的国际战略观。未来四年，俄罗斯将仍在“普京计划”的框架下继续实施强国战略，但前进的道路上也面临着一些风险。

Duma and presidential elections in late 2007 and early 1008 in Russia stood as important handover of power since Putin came to power that would decide on the country’s future orientation. Putin had been dedicated to ensuring the continuity of governance after the handover so as to eventually realize his strategy of building Russia into a powerful country: Politically he aimed to establish a party institutional system based on ruling party monopoly, meticulously arrange the personnel layout, and form a Putin-Mededjev power operation model while setting himself up as the 'national leader' and extending a strong presidency. Economically he aimed to establish a medium and long term state development strategy and keep a good account book for the next presidency while tightening state control over strategic sectors while forming competitive edge and enhancing creativity with hi tech as the pillar to bring along economic rehabilitation. In foreign policy, with Russia ridding itself of financial reliance on the West, totally changing its status of subordination and forming a new international strategic outlook with its own strength and changeable international developments, Putin aimed to lay foundations for the building of a political and social system under which Russia could survive without fearing or courting favor from the West. The next four years will see Russia continue implementation of the strength building strategy within the framework of 'Putin program,' but the road of advance will be bumpy with risks.