年轮分析在栓皮栎径向生长模型中的应用

The Applications of Tree-ring Analysis in Quercus Variabilis's Radial Growth Models

通过群落调查和树木年轮分析,研究栓皮栎径向生长与影响因子的相关关系,运用逐步回归分析建立一系列树木径向生长模型,检验比较得到最优模型。研究结果表明:树木径向生长用树木的基半径大小、年龄、生境因子及其综合因子进行拟合,模型的拟合优度R2为0.935,模型和回归系数显著性检验值均<0.001,在预测组和检验组的残差检验中,预测精度分别为92.18%和92.54%。运用该模型,可重建过去和预估将来栓皮栎的生长量、估算活立木的年龄,从而研究种群结构和数量动态。

Radial Growth Models were established, through community investigation and tree-ring analysis of Quercus variabilis. Original data of tree-ring width was collected with WinDenDro and Crossdating Methods. All data in this paper were analyzed with correlation analysis and step-wised regression method. The results showed that： The optimum model, which used the diameter, age, soil and their comprehensive factors to forecast the radial growth, had a good practical effect. The determination coefficient of the optimum model was 0.935, the significant testing values of the model and regression coefficients were less than 0. 001. The model＇s predictive precisions were respectively 92.18% and 92.54% in residual tests of predictive group and test group. This model is effective in reconstructing and forecasting Quercus variabilis＇s radial growth, estimating the age of stumpage, and then studying the population structure and dynamics.