中国城乡互动发展区域差异变动与收敛性分析

Research on the regional diversity of the urban-rural interaction development and its changes and convergence in China

在对区域城乡互动发展进行综合评价的基础上，首先计算了中国区域城乡互动发展水平的锡尔指数，得出了近20年仑国、地带间、地带内的差异均有收敛趋势的结论，为了分析这种收敛的趋势在未来是否具有持续性，采用R／S分析法计算了1986年～2005年间全国、地带间、地带内锡尔系数的赫斯特指数，结果表明：全国、地带问和地带内城乡互动发展水平的差异均未呈现收敛而呈发散趋势，因此缩小地带问和地带内的差异将是城乡和区域协调发展战略中的一项重要任务．

Based on the comprehensive evaluation of the regional urban-rural interaction development in China, after Theft indices for the regional urban-rural interaction development are calculated, a conclusion that the regional diversity of urban-rural interaction development has a trend of convergence for the whole country, inter-zonal, intra-zonal in the recent 20 years in China is reached. In order to analyze whether this convergence trend is durative in the future, the Hurst indices are calculated for the Theil indices for the whole country, inter-zonal and intra-zonal areas by employing R/S method. The result shows that the regional diversity will not be convergence but divergence. Consequently, it is a great task to reduce the regional diversities for both inter-zonal and intra -zonal areas for implementing urban-rural and regional harmonized development strategy in China.