中国就业结构演变的SDA分析

Structural Decomposition Analysis on Employment Changes in China

作者利用投入产出技术中的结构分解(SDA)模型定量测度1997～2002年中国主要行业的就业变化。研究结果显示,总体来看消费使中国就业人数增加了1.93%,投资使就业人数增加了2.63%,出口使就业人数增加了3.95%,其他原因使就业人数增加了2.56%,进口使就业减少4.89%,技术进步使就业人数减少了6%。出口对就业增加作用最大,投资和消费都对就业增加有积极作用,但消费启动是扩大就业的根本途径。

This paper uses Structural Decomposition Analysis(SDA)to measure employment changes in major industries from 1997 to 2002.The results show that consumption,investment,exports,and other factors caused the increases of employment by 1.93%,2.63%,3.95%,and 2.56%,respectively,and imports and technological advancement resulted in reduction of employment by 4.89% and 6%,respectively.The author therefore suggests further developing the tertiary industry in order to transform the mode of economic growth from investment driving type to consumption oriented one,and integration of the urban and urban labor markets to facilitate the labor mobility.