制度参数、国家规模与后发国“蛙跳”

Institutional Parameter,State's Scale and a Late-Developing Country's "Leapfrog"

文章首先构建了一个有关先发国家与后发国家之间技术扩散的正规模型,该模型将制度背景作为一个参数引入,借以从形式上分析制度背景对技术进步及经济增长过程的影响;模型的动态分析从形式上展现了后发国家在技术水平上超越先发国家("蛙跳")的全过程,并推论出后发国成功实现"蛙跳"的先决条件是:后发国由制度参数与经济规模参数所决定的综合参数能够由比先发国低的值跃升为比先发国高的值。此外,文章还基于经济制度由相关利益主体间制度博弈均衡所决定的这一分析框架,进一步尝试性地解释了制度参数变化的非均匀性,并对中国未来实现"蛙跳"的可能性进行了分析。

This paper first builds a formal model about the technological diffusion between early-developing countries and late-developing countries. The distinctiveness of the model is that we introduce institutional background as a parameter into the model so as to analyze formally the effect of institutional background on the process of technological development and economic growth. The dynamic analysis of the model shows the whole course of a late-developing country surpassing an early-developing country in technological level （“leapfrog”）,and deduces that the prerequisite for a late-de- veloping country tO “leapfrog” successfully is that this country should have a higher combined parameter determined by institution and economic scale than that of the early-developing country.