基于马尔科夫概率预测法的游荡型河道主流突变次数概率预报模式探讨

Probability model for the prediction of numbers of sudden change of the main flow based on Markov method

单位时间内游荡型河道主流突变次数的预报,可为河道抢险预案的制定提供有力的依据,对防洪安全具有重要意义。本文利用黄河下游淤背大型沉沙池主流突变次数实测资料的计算表明,采用马尔科夫概率预测法预报主流突变次数概率具有一定的准确度,游荡型河道的主流突变次数过程符合马尔科夫过程(MarkovProcess)。由此,提出了一种基于马尔科夫概率预测法的游荡型河道主流突变次数概率预报模式,可为主流突变问题的进一步研究提供参考。

The prediction of the numbers of sudden change of the main flow for braided rivers is important for the preparatory scheme of flood control.The data of sudden change of the main flow observed in a large-scale desilting basin located behind the main dike in the lower Yellow River indicated that the Markov probability prediction method can be used to predict the numbers of sudden change of the main flow with accuracy.The development of sudden change of the main flow can be described by the Markov process.A probability model for the prediction of numbers of sudden change of the main flow was proposed based on the Markov method.The result of this paper is valuable for further study on related issues.