崛起的印度经济对中国与亚洲地区的影响--基于CGE的视角

Evaluating the impact on china and the rest of Asia of India's economy growth—a CGE view

本研究利用了GTAP模型来分析印度经济的增长对于中国乃至亚洲其它地区的影响。研究发现,印度要素的增长必定给印度自身经济带来福利的增加,但绝大多数情况下给中国和亚洲其它地区带来的却是福利的损失;印度产品部门的技术进步给中国及亚洲其它国家相应部门的福利带来的影响各不相同。然而从影响的绝对程度而言,印度经济的增长对中国和亚洲其它国家影响并不是十分大。

This paper use a GTAP model to analyze the impact of India＇s economy growth upon China and rest of Asia. Our Result shows that when factors in India grow, India gains welfare improvements by all means while China and rest of Asia experiences welfare losses; the result also shows that productivity increase of India＇s specific sectors will impact China and rest of Asia differently. As a whole, the absolute impact of India＇s economy growth upon China and Rest of Asia is not very distinct.